Nikkei 225 · September 30, 2024

Monday priced in a Friday leadership vote

-4.80%

single-day change vs previous close

Part of a longer stretch

From the carry unwind to tariffs

early in it · 2024-07-11 → 2025-04-07, -26.26% over the whole period

What happened that day?

The Nikkei fell 4.8% to close at 37,919.55
The ruling party's leadership result came out after the close on Friday 27 September. An unexpected candidate won the runoff
The market reacted on the next session — this one. Announced Friday, priced Monday: the ordinary lag
What worried investors was that the new leader was relatively open to higher rates and higher taxes. Higher rates mean a stronger yen and thinner exporter profits
Before the vote, prices had assumed a different winner. That assumption was overturned in a day
The fall did not last. It reversed once the new leader signalled that this was not the moment to raise rates
This market had already seen violent daily swings that August. One policy expectation was enough to move the whole index

Sources

Every figure on this page is recomputed from the original daily closing prices and checked against them at build time. The account of what happened is put together from the public record; where a specific source was consulted it is listed above.